Is PlanB’s Stock-to-Flow Model About To Break? Crypto Traders Reassess Bold Bitcoin Forecast

Popular Bitcoin analyst PlanB says his widely used Bitcoin price prediction model is at a crucial level of support.

The stock-to-flow (S2F) model, traditionally used to track the performance of commodities like precious metals, compares an asset’s price to its available supply.


Plan B has amassed a large following due to the accuracy of the S2F and the S2FX, a variation of the S2F, which also takes into account gold and silver’s performance to reach a price estimation for Bitcoin.

The pseudonymous analyst tells his 536,400 followers that Bitcoin just bounced off the lower band of the S2F model.

The stock-to-flow model predicts that Bitcoin will hit $100,000 and the S2FX reasons that Bitcoin may reach $288,000.

2nd bounce off the lower band of S2F model. Will S2F break? Or will this turn out to be an excellent buy signal? I know multiple hedge funds that actually trade this BTC-S2F “cointegration” (despite that we can’t formally use cointegration tests because S2F ratio isn’t random).

— PlanB (@100trillionUSD) June 1, 2021

In a poll on Twitter, PlanB asks his followers if they believe that the charts indicate that Bitcoin is going to disprove the S2F hypothesis, or if the charts are flashing massive buy signals. The poll shows that 17.6% of participants believe that S2F will break, 53.3% believe this is a buy signal and 29% of participants just wanted to see the poll results.

PlanB says that while the S2F model is close to “breaking”, the S2FX model is intact, and that Bitcoin is still in a bull market despite BTC’s price dip last month.

“May close $37,341… -35% … we knew Bitcoin would not go up in a straight line and several -35% drops are possible (and indeed likely) in a bull market. Starting to look like 2013. S2FX model intact.”


The popular trader has previously noted that he’s not personally focused on short-term price action, showing immense confidence in the long-term value of the flagship cryptocurrency.

“I am less interested in $100K-$288K, but focused on 2024 halving and beyond. I don’t care about volatility, asymmetric return is key ($0 vs. $1 million).”

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Disclaimer: Opinions expressed at are not investment advice. Investors should do their due diligence before making any high-risk investments in Bitcoin, cryptocurrency or digital assets. Please be advised that your transfers and trades are at your own risk, and any loses you may incur are your responsibility. does not recommend the buying or selling of any cryptocurrencies or digital assets, nor is an investment advisor. Please note that participates in affiliate marketing.

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